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$2/$3 top set, wet flop, V min c/r ???

ChaseSpellChaseSpell Posts: 183Subscriber
edited March 2018 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Game is $2/$3 $3-$300 at local casino. Friday afternoon, 9-handed.

V ($900) is middle aged guy typical reg for these games, fairly loose and fairly passive, he open raises $10 (his normal open size) from UTG+1,
a short-stack player flats MP,
Hero ($450) K :s: K in low-jack, raise $40, V call, ss fold,

FLOP ($81) K Q 5

V chk, H bets $30, V c/r min, H ?

H raises $200 total, V takes about 20sec to call,

TURN ($481) K Q 5 6
V chk pretty quickly, H ?

* C-bet sizing?
* Our flop 3-bet sizing? (We have to raise, right?)
* On the turn he might check any flush, he almost certainly would check the nut flush, but we have little left behind on the turn, so are we forced to jam?

Thanks for your help!
H all-in $210, V grimaces & folds pretty quickly,
What do you think he had???

Comments

  • CycleVCycleV Posts: 1,196Subscriber
    edited March 2018
    I'm shocked he called such a large c/r, great value on your part.

    OTT if he has a set he will usually reluctantly call a shove. If he has a flush he obv will call. He can't have AhKx, the only Ah he can have is AKhh. Any other AK has Kh and will call some % of the time. There's no KQs but maybe KQo? That will have the Kh. Does he open or limp JTs?

    So he can have 3 QQ, probably no 55 if he is the limp/call type. Let's give him 2 of the 3 AxKh. That's 5 calls we're ahead of. Maybe the single KhQo but idk, you know better than I do if he has that in his open range. I'd guess we're only behind AKhh-AThh, that's 3 hands. So stick it in the middle.

    If he had a set and a 4th heart rolls off, you'll never get a dime from him. So if you bet and he folds, well there probably wasn't much you could do about it.
  • ChaseSpellChaseSpell Posts: 183Subscriber
    edited March 2018
    . . .the only Ah he can have is AKhh
    Yea I don't think he really ever calls flop with a hand like AhQx, maybe 1 time in 20.
    . . .There's no KQs but maybe KQo? That will have the Kh.

    I think he sometimes calls our 3! here with KQo so he can have some combos of it. Maybe one of the possible three.
    Does he open or limp JTs?
    Not sure but he definitely could open-raise it UTG, and if so it's near the bottom of his range. His raising range here is mostly going to be at least-good-Broadways and the medium-bigger pairs.
    . . .Let's give him 2 of the 3 AxKh. That's 5 calls we're ahead of.

    He has 3 combos of AKo: AcKh, AdKh, AsKh
    but I don't think we can give him credit for 2 combos of it on the turn because he would reraise all-in over my $200 on the flop a very high percentage of the time with those hands (and I don't think he would c/r min with that hand very often), so I would think maybe give him 0.5 combos of it on the turn.
    . . .I'd guess we're only behind AKhh-AThh, that's 3 hands.
    Flush combos on the turn I think he could have AhKh, AhJh, AhTh, maybe Ah9h, KhJh, KhTh, maybe even JhTh, Th9h, or 9h8h, and maybe a few other random suited hands a low percentage of the time, so call it a total of maybe 7 combos of flushes, but he might not always check the turn with a flush, so let's give him credit for about 5 combos of flushes.

    Hands we can get value from:
    AxKh he has maybe 0.5 (of 3) combos, because I think he would usually just reraise all-in on the flop with those hands,
    He has one (of 3) combos of KQo,
    He might occasionally have AhAx, so maybe half-a-combo-worth (of possible 3),
    I don't think he ever has QQ because I think he always ships the flop after we make it $200 (and I don't think he would c/r min with that hand very often),
    So that's maybe 2 combos of hands that we get value from, and possibly more than 5 combos of flushes.

    Have I got something wrong here? This is starting to seem a lot closer to a check-back on the turn.
    So if you bet and he folds, well there probably wasn't much you could do about it.

    What do you think he had? It seems very weird for him to call the $200 on the flop and then chk-fold this turn.

    Thanks for your help!
  • neverlearn2neverlearn2 Posts: 2,862Subscriber
    I would have bet more on flop for sure. They either got a big draw, some pairs, or nothing. You not going to see trash call to often do no need to size small imo.

    As played. You got great value. Nice on the size, I'm surprised as well he called but hey.

    We only got 210 left? I'd shove it in. 2 pair and sets and maybe AhK might call. River can kill the action.
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