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Interesting Runout and River Decision

At a local 1-3 cash game with a table of bad rec players. Some are splashy, most are weak/passive and all are just bad. Villain to my immediate left is incompetent and terrible (nearly called a nit's $130 4-bet preflop with K♦J♦).

I open UTG($430) to $12 with A♠Q♣. Villain to my immediate left (covers; incompetent and terrible; three-bet top pair weak kicker in position on the last flop I played with him) min raises to $22. SB calls. BB Folds. I thought about 4-betting, but I figured I could outplay SB and +1 and dominate their Ax heavy range, and I was closing action.

So, three ways to a flop.

Flop($65) J♦ 7♦ 2♣

Checks through. I eliminate his strongest holdings (AA,KK,QQ) and put him on something with some showdown A10-AK, middling pairs, overs, or maybe a slowplayed JJ. It's tough to range him because I doubt he has any sort of postflop strategy/gameplan. TBH he could have any two cards at this point, but I'm using my best judgement.

Turn($65) Q♠

SB checks. I bet $40. I think there is enough KJ, KQ, AJ, AK, AT and other draws I can get called by. Villain calls.

River($145) A♣

I bet $200 into $145; any of his AK, A10, and AJ might think they have the best hand now.

He shoves. Other than a slowplayed JJ, he has nothing that beats me here. If he has K10, he's getting paid. I call $170 more.

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Comments

  • SonnySonny Posts: 390Subscriber
    edited March 2018
    It's hard to say... Sure he might have thought about *calling* with a pretty marginal hand, however how often is this type of player taking a very aggressive action and 3 betting pre-flop next to act? Not very often. For the price I'm not folding pre, but I'm also not convinced I'd have the best hand.
    I think check, bet, bet, is fine as you're getting called by a large amount of hands that you beat. AJ, QJ, AK, probably A7 even. However when you overbet the pot, and then get jammed on that is a pretty big red flag. I don't think I necessarly love the overbet either. At this stake the money matters to a lot of the players. I think if you bet $100 or so on the end ANY Ace calls, but for $200 I think you fold out everything under two pair.
    Since you already jammed $200 on the river Ithink AQ is certianly a call for $170 more, but I wouldn't be supprised if you were beat. He could have JJ like you said, K10 could certianly be played this way. I wouldnt be super suprised if he has 77 or QQ either.
    When a player like this puts a lot of money in the pot, or jams, they almost always have a strong hand. Now whether or not he's overplaying his hand?
    ...The more I think about it, other than the light 3 bet pre, I don't think this player winds up here with this action unless he does have K10...
  • ohsnapzbrahohsnapzbrah Posts: 632Subscriber
    4bet preflop. If this villain is truly as bad as it seems, then we want to be HU against him and we want to have a hand that plays well in a smaller SPR situation. AQo is exactly that kind of hand. This also helps to negate the positional disadvantage that we have. A lot of poker players use the "skill advantage" argument when just calling with a hand they shouldn't OOP. A lot of it is baloney. What is the difference between a double barrel from this opponent and a double barrel from another opponent? Being OOP is still being OOP. If he almost called with KJs, imagine what he'll do with AJ or AT or KQ. We can put him in a dominating situation. And if he is crazy enough to 5bet jam, I'd probably happily call.

    As played, nothing you can do but call river. He could have A7, AK, AT, AdXd that made TP, etc.
    Thanked by 1BluDevil22
  • BluDevil22BluDevil22 Posts: 14Subscriber
    4bet preflop. If this villain is truly as bad as it seems, then we want to be HU against him and we want to have a hand that plays well in a smaller SPR situation. AQo is exactly that kind of hand.

    Excellent point.

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