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Bet sizing, river top set

milkofamnsiamilkofamnsia Posts: 13Subscriber, Professional
edited February 2018 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
$2/5 table, about 1800 effective. I would describe villain as fairly straightforward, sticky with draws and any top pairs, and when he raises he usually has a large piece.

Hero straddles on the button for $10, MP and hi-jack limp. Hero holds A A and raises to $60. MP folds, hi-jack calls.

Flop: Q :s: 8 2 :s:
Villain leads for $50. I call. I probably miss a standard raise here, but I think his limp calling range consists of a lot of Q (KQ, QJ, QT...) as well as some flush draws (Ax spades, JT spades). I didn't want to blow him off a weak queen and just called. He probably still calls a raise to $150 with most queens just mentioned though, and so this is a mistake by me probably.

Turn: T
Villain checks, I bet $120 into $220. Same logic as above, wanting to keep a weaker queen around and some flush draws (I don't block nut flush luckily). This villain almost never has AQ as a limp, and I block that anyway.

Villain check raises to $420. His lead flop and xr turn is not consistent with his typical betting line for sets (he almost ALWAYS slow plays a set, and wouldn't lead flop at all with, e.g., 22). This does seem like 2 pair (QT or T8 both possible?), but perhaps he could be holding a flush draw or pair that picks a gutshot (AT spades, QJ/Q9, JT, etc.). I call.

Pot is about 1,000 going into river, and villain has about 1,300 behind.

River: A

Villain checks. I suppose I acted too quickly, because after typing this hand out, he should have a missed draw with a mediocre hand (which he will fold), or a fairly strong hand in the form of 2-pair. I don't think his weak queen holdings check-raise the turn...

My thought process was I want to get called by all his single pair queens, and so I bet only $350 trying to target that range.

How bad is this sizing and thought process? How large would you bet here? Do you ever consider sizing for a raise-fold (only losing to a weird KJ or a sneaky J9)?
Villain snap called with QTo


  • pokertimepokertime Posts: 2,194Subscriber
    I probably make it at least $500. He CR turn so he’s has something he’s calling with. Maybe bigger based on what I think he pays off. Might even go $700
  • beatsmebeatsme Posts: 603Subscriber
    Your thinking through out the hand is pretty solid imo.

    OTR I don't like this sizing... as you said the turn raise is a big draw or a hand like QT T8 or possibly TT. Just because he normally slow plays sets doesn't mean you can rule it out completely. I also think J9 is a possibility here all offsuit combos.
    And K :s: J :s: .

    17 combos of straights
    18 combos of 2 pair
    9 combos of sets
    Lots of potential combos of Ax :s:

    I think we should compare the numbers the way they are because yes he prob doesn't play all his sets like this otf but he doesn't play all J9 like this all the time either.

    Im guessing $500 is a "large" bet for the game so... villain dependent. There are some players I would shove on here because they cant fold 2 pair or a set. There are other villains I would bet fold 500 here because they aren't putting $1000 in the pot without the nuts!
  • neverlearn2neverlearn2 Posts: 2,862Subscriber
    What is his turn c/r range? Is he the type to try to get poeple off top pair?

    He leads is a weak range for sure
  • DrSpaceDrSpace Posts: 716Subscriber
    edited February 2018
    bet $475 and pray you don't get raised. While 2 pair is quite likely (QT, T8s) the A scares players rightly.
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