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Do we bet fold this turn, or do we take one off?

Jesse_The_SuitJesse_The_Suit Posts: 493Subscriber, Professional
1-3, like 500 effective, villain covers. V is a mid-30s Asian guy. Doesn't seem overly aggressive or spewy. I raise UTG to 10, with kings, he calls in UTG plus two another person calls in the field . We go three ways to the flop.

Flop is J83, rainbow. I bet 20 into 30, figuring that jacks and straight draws will call and that's about it. V calls, other dude fold.

Turn is a brick, a red 2 that completed the rainbow. I bet 60 into 70. Rationale for this is that I don't expect the dry straight draws to continue but I suspect a 1/3 player to call down at least two streets with a jack. Something odd happens now, he raises to 130 --- so almost a min-click back. Obviously, 3-betting a raise on the turn is over-repping an overpair. But, given pot odds (it's like 260, 70 to call) do you think we have the 20-25 percent equity against range to make the call and see what happens on the river?
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Comments

  • pokertimepokertime Posts: 2,194Subscriber
    If he can do this with AJ then yes. You put AJ, J8, 33 into poker cruncher we have 37% and even adding 22 we still have 28% so we have to see a river as it may even go check check or his sizing is so small we have to call etc. I would think we are behind a lot with your description but you never know as some people like to see a clean turn before betting/raising and as I always say players love to put us on AK.
  • Jesse_The_SuitJesse_The_Suit Posts: 493Subscriber, Professional
    Also, it's less applicable on J high boards but I see a lot of guys at 1/3 go nuts with smaller overpairs. Like raise pot on flop and bet huge on turn, putting in like 2/3rds of their stack on a T high board with jacks. It's almost like you panic playing. Like they have an overpair, they don't know what to do, do they just get super aggressive. Of course, it's 1/3 so since no one folds a good top pair this crazy aggression isn't as absurd as it would be otherwise.
  • beatsmebeatsme Posts: 603Subscriber
    So this would set off alarm bells for me. Just because our turn bet is pretty big. I like a smaller bet ott... prob 45ish. 60 just seems big.

    If you bet turn 45 and he makes it 100 I'm defently calling.... Then prob leading most rivers small to target Jx. 60 to 130 makes me lean more towards a.) Folding now or b.) calling then check folding river if another big bet is made.

    Basically 60 into 70 folds out most all jacks where 45 keeps all jacks in.
    Thanked by 1ohsnapzbrah
  • CycleVCycleV Posts: 1,226Subscriber
    Tough spot. Vs standard middle aged guys I might find a fold, but who we kidding, probably not. Sometimes this is a play for a cheap showdown. Def gonna have to fold to a decent river bet though.

    BTW this is just a language thing, but the pot odds aren't really about "do we have equity". This is WA/WB, and it's more like, Are we ahead 1/4 of the time?
  • pray4blankpray4blank Posts: 141Subscriber
    I think the most important thing to consider is how you think this opponent will play the river. The worst scenario is a somewhat balanced range when he is betting the river - Mostly value, some bluffs, some accidental value owns. If he will never bet a worse hand, then you can consider calling based solely on the odds you feel you're winning vs. pot odds on the turn, then show your winning hand if he checks back the river. If he has a very high bluff and overvaluing his hand range, you just easily call down.

    ...a middling frequency probably makes this a fold, given that being ahead 1/4th of the time is not enough when you'll additionally be bluffed off your hand. As a very simplified example: If you are geting 4:1, and feel you're 4:1 vs him on the turn, but you feel he'll bluff some 25% of the river for half pot, you cannot call because you'll only realize your equity 75% of the time.
  • ohsnapzbrahohsnapzbrah Posts: 632Subscriber
    Raise more preflop at 1/3. $10 invites a litany of callers, which is something our hand doesn't necessarily want.

    I don't like the turn sizing. The board is fairly dry. Seems like there is just T9 for a draw, and there really aren't many T9 combos. I've seen a few villains lay down small top pairs against large bets. If we're in a standard, middle-aged guy's shoes and we have QJ on the turn and we see a large bet, we're going to start thinking. Most hopeful scenario is that we're put on AK. I'd like a bet of $45.

    When he almost min-raises turn, I think we fold. Of all the online hands I've played, and the ones I've played live, I can count on two hands the amount of times the turn min-raise has not been a close to nutted hand. I find players bluff min-raise river more than the turn. We need to be good 25% of the time, but all 9 of his sets play this way. Most of his top two play this way. We can't say the same about a naked J, and most of the time when a villain does raise with a top pair, it's the flop.

    I did put in a range of JJ, 88, 33, 65% of J8s, and 15% of QQ, AJs, and AJo. We get about 24%. So close to the equity, but again I'm thinking this is QQ never, and AJ a much smaller percentage of the time. When we think about the bet sizing too, players are much more reluctant to mess around against a larger bet size with relation to the pot. So his range is going to be much more narrow than if we bet, say, $30 and got raised. In that instance, I'd say there is a greater chance of AJ and a couple of random bluffs. But at $60, I think we fold.
  • Jesse_The_SuitJesse_The_Suit Posts: 493Subscriber, Professional
    Yeah, the sizing on the turn is rather large. I bet it figuring that draws will fold to any reasonable bet, and J will call even a large bet, but I am not sure the reasoning is sound.

    I disagree about the raise standards sizing. I think consistency in open sizing is about the only kind of balance one needs in live low stakes --- even drolleries can see that. Since I don't open limp, I think 3x ish is a fine open.

    It's weird, but I tend to agree with you about turn min-raises. Flop min-raises are often weak (weak overpairs, top pair protection raises). Still, people do such weird shit...its hard to fold a strong overpair to a mom-raise.
  • beatsmebeatsme Posts: 603Subscriber
    What dis you do decide to do?
  • Jesse_The_SuitJesse_The_Suit Posts: 493Subscriber, Professional
    I called, and hit a king on the river.
    Thanked by 1pokertime
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