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A strange live poker dynamic, with an overpair

Jesse_The_SuitJesse_The_Suit Posts: 493Subscriber, Professional
1/3, 400ish effective. Game alternatives between passive and insane (huge 3-bets with Q7, etc). I raise UTG to 10 with back aces 7 call. Flop comes out 783, all diamonds. I bet 30, for value/protection. A guy tries to raise but misclicks it as a call (one 100 dollar chip, no oral statement of intent to raise). Another guy calls behind. Turn is a queen of hearts. I check, guy bets 100. Folds back to me. So it's like 240, 100 to call. Do you think we have the 30 ish percent equity against his range to najt this call? Any other thoughts on play appreciated.
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Comments

  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,581Subscriber
    #1 raise more in a 1/3 game
    #2 I think you are screwed.
  • SonnySonny Posts: 390Subscriber
    edited January 2018
    With 7! other players I think we're in bad shape. As Fuzzy mentioned bet more pre regardless. I generally always open to at least $15 in $1/3 with no limps in front even in a tight passive game, more if its loose.
    With that many players its entirely possible someone flopped a set or a weird 2 pair. I don't think someone necessarly flopped a flush, but its a possibility.
    With more information it would be easier to break down the hand. The guy that wanted to raise, was he next to act after you? How many people did his bet have to get through?
    In general however, a raise (or an attempt of a raise) in $1/3 is two pair plus.
    Really the only hand you beat that anyone 'might' play this way is the naked A, maybe A 8×, but players probably just call with those. The only cards I can see really helping are the A, or possibly an off suit Q or maybe an off suit 3, even then we might be drawing dead. So I think we're drawing very slim if we're not already dead and certianly not near 30%. On top of that, if we were to call and the river bricks, we are now getting a decent price on calling off a shove, which is a very very tough spot.
    My general attitude in close spots (even though I don't think this spot is that close) is just wait for a better opportunity. You're not in the business of making hero calls, you're there to catch the punts.
  • neverlearn2neverlearn2 Posts: 2,862Subscriber
    Yea. I wouldnt mind a flop fold honestly to a raise but I can't continue turn. Maybe too weak passive but this is really bad spot for us haha
  • Jesse_The_SuitJesse_The_Suit Posts: 493Subscriber, Professional
    I generally just raise to 10, probably out of laziness. Perhaps I should increase size in loose games. I actually think that the wait to catch the punts mentality is a totally healthy one for a rec player (like me) who doesn't really need the money. I am wllling to take a slightly lower win rate in exchange for reduced variance. Anyway, I agree this should basically be a snap fold. He probably never has a flush, but he probably only raises sets/two pair on this scary board. I leveled myself into calling, river was a brick, he jammed and I folded. Showed 77 for top set.
  • Jesse_The_SuitJesse_The_Suit Posts: 493Subscriber, Professional
    Also, I would have snap folded if the raise had been allowed. Obviously, it shouldn't really change anything when he repeats the same action.
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