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Missed value?

Jesse_The_SuitJesse_The_Suit Posts: 493Subscriber, Professional
1/3, like 400 effective. I overlimp 55s in MP and go five ways to the flop (I will often ISO this hand, but my image was kind of bluffy and I literally had not gotten a c-bet through in the last two hours). We go like six ways to the flop.

Flop is Q85 rainbow, dude in early postion leads for 10 (pot is 18) fold to me, i raise to 30. He calls relatively quickly. Turn is a ten, complete rainbow. He checks, I bet 55. Figure that I can go a bit on the bigger side because that hand fits pretty well into a limping range from up front. (I.e a lot of queens either picked up pairs or made queens up). He clicks it back to 110. I flat (mistake)?

River is pairs the 8. He checks.

Obviously we are betting, what's your sizing?


  • PNW_ChrisPNW_Chris Posts: 31Subscriber
    One thing that jumps out to me is you said your image was "kind of bluffy". Does that also mean people are continuing relatively light? If that is the case, you might consider sizing up on your flop raise. With your $10, the pot is $38, so the V is getting almost 2:1. I might go $40 or $45.

    I'd probably also raise back on the turn. As played, after the $110 raise, the pot is $243, with the effective remaining stack being $257. If you make it $200 total, the pot will be $478 with about $167 behind, allowing for an easy river shove offering almost 4:1 on a call.

    As played the pot is about $300, with $257 left. If you think you are good here, I would use Bart's "trick" of betting a little less than all-in, trying to get a call ($200 - $225). Two pair should call, as well as any 8.
  • DavidTuchmanDavidTuchman Posts: 791Pro
    first off, I like the adjustment you made by limping. Too often we continue to play the same way regardless of our image and if our image is such that raising with 55 isn't going to ISO the fish and you aren't getting a lot of Cbets through, it can be more profitable to limp.

    I like your flat on the turn CR. It's pretty unlikely he's doing this with a draw and I imagine he'll bet most rivers. On the off chance that he's bluffing, we keep those in. I doubt he's folding a value hand if you were to 3-bet, but just in case, let's not blow him out of the water. Besides all that, You're in position...

    On the river...The pot is $298 with about $250 behind. If he was bluffing, he isn't calling any bet. If he was CRing a value hand like QT or J9, I don't see him folding. There's a chance you could be value-owning yourself and the trick is to make sure you don't bet an amount that gets everything worse to fold and only better to call. I don't see J9 or QT folding and it's more likely he has that than Q8, QQ, 88 or TT ... TBH, at 1-3, he might even talk himself into calling with AQ

    Move all in.

    Nice post.

    Thanked by 1pokertime
  • ohsnapzbrahohsnapzbrah Posts: 632Subscriber
    Preflop seems fine. At this level, I don't necessarily want to try and iso with weak PPs like this with a bluffy image because so often we wind up 6 ways in a bloated pot and just xf on KQ7 because we have no equity.

    Flop seems fine, we may be able to go a little larger than 30 to juice the pot up and get max value.

    I like the turn sizing as well. Again, could go larger because the T hits his range slightly harder than yours (think QT, T8, JT, T9, J9), but it's a difference of a couple of red birds.

    When he check raises turn, it's fairly awkward? We could flat and call any non J or 9 river. Or we could 3bet. By 3betting, we iso ourselves against J9, QT, and the random 88. Putting this into flopzilla, we're decently behind when we 3bet the turn and get called or shipped on. But we're getting a decent price on a call, and we're not massively behind. We just have to know that when we call turn, we have to call pretty much all river due to the price we'll be getting.

    River, when he checks, as David said, just jam. J9 isn't going anywhere, and that's his main hand. He has 16 combos of those hands compared to 9 of QT and 1 88.
  • Jesse_The_SuitJesse_The_Suit Posts: 493Subscriber, Professional
    @CA29, I am not sure I had a bluffy enough image to get substantial raises called that light. That's not just a part of most rec players games. Also, i don't think this guy understands pot size and pot odds. I have really been trying to pay attention which players in my pool even know how large the pot is (beyond a general "wow that's a lot of money). I think I could go a bit bigger than 30, but once you start betting 40ish plus in a limped pot, that's a big bet. Which, rolling to the turn is why I bet 55. I thought that card was very good for his range, giving him either queens up or a draw to go with it. Since I think he is never raising light in this spot (see the big bet on turn) I agree conning over the top small ish was the best play. In game, I was scared about j9. Which is pretty absurd. He is leading with a non-nut gut shot, calling a raise, and check min-raising when it gets there? Absurd. I should have made it like 175 and then shipped any river.
  • DrSpaceDrSpace Posts: 716Subscriber
    you click back the 110 to 170 makes it all play better IMO
  • Jesse_The_SuitJesse_The_Suit Posts: 493Subscriber, Professional
    @drspace too the words right out of my mouth.
  • Jesse_The_SuitJesse_The_Suit Posts: 493Subscriber, Professional
    @DavidTuchman I actually agree that it might make sense to jam and make it look polarizing. I am worried about shoving because this dude has no idea what the pot size is, so he might think that's some sort of gross overbet. When he checked the river, it sort of weirded me out. I figured if he had like J9 he'd come out firing. 1/3 players don't thunk about full houses much. So I read him as week at bet only 105, targeting I guesss a single queen?

    He had the hand that makes the most sense with this line, QT. Top two, gets (sort of) counterfeit on the river. He called on pretty quickly. I am trying to adjust my sizing based on timing. I assume that when people snap call, I have bet too little. A tank call is the speed I want with a nutted hand.

    Thanks for your feedback David.
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