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Surreal Advantage Podcast No. 88: Surreal Advantage NFL Week 15

Daliman talks about his busiest NFL week of the season thus far, and why he thinks starting Aaron Rodgers is a bad idea.

Episode Posts at 2 PM PST.

http://www.crushlivepoker.com/podcasts/surreal-advantage-nfl-week-15

Comments

  • Lame_NameLame_Name Posts: 22Subscriber
    edited December 2017
    Week 16

    Dali - Colts +13.5 Total 41. Is this correlated parlay? My book never flags these. I could bet both sides with dog/under and favorite/over. Do you see value to betting both sides? I get +260 on the parlay. Any rule of thumb for when a spread and total become correlated?

    Thanks for the info.
  • DalimanDaliman Posts: 149Pro
    It's definitely a correlated parlay. The rule of thumb is mostly just any 10+ point spread parlayed with the total, but the bigger the spread/total ratio, the bigger the correlation. So there is a bigger correlation with +35/Total 49 than +13.5/Total 41. As I have said, most books don't allow a parlay in the same game including a 10+ point spread, and for good reason. You should definitely take advantage of it.
    Thanked by 1Lame_Name
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