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Winrate per hour

Just curious if there's a thread round here with winrates/graphs? Looking for some sweet giraffes, preferably with at least 1000 hours at the stake. Overall giraffes cool too.
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Comments

  • pokertimepokertime Posts: 2,194Subscriber
    They are all over just search. There have been winrate threads and some people post their own goals and challenges with various win rate info in that thread.
    Thanked by 1bingyian
  • NickFoxNickFox Posts: 9Subscriber
    Short answer: 4 - 10 big blinds per hours.

    Longer answer: It depends.
  • workinghardworkinghard Posts: 1,573Subscriber
    Everyone wants to see winrates. I want to see loose rates. How much are my opponents loosing? How much pain are they willing to take? Those just don't get posted though
    Thanked by 1JKH
  • Letmewin1Letmewin1 Posts: 1,244Member
    If you're workinghard of the felt then your win rate shouldn't be on your mind during pokertime especially if you can win pots with nopair while playing AJoff like a a true poker beast and if we ever meet please letmewin1.
    if you neverlearn2 bluff then your win rate will suck but it still beatsme how these regs call down bink and then cross their fingers that you bet, you can count their winrate on one hand, all I want is the freelunch I can get on my comps accumulated over thousands of hours of clocking in the same poker room and I am stil jealous of High_Rolla, well his name says it all.
    One of these days I'm hoping to sit down with Beauregard and fuzzypup to shoot the breeze but they might not be able to handle my hourly rate of JD.
    I've mentioned some of the poster I respect and might have forgot'en a few so apologies to those who feel their hourly deserves to be in this word diarrhea but hasn't been mentioned I'm into my second bottle of red so :oops:
    One very important fact I can state tho is once you joined this CLP site/forum and started reading what the above have posted and what Bart preaches/writes your hourly should go up and if it hasn't then hey rinse-repeat.
    I'm out of wine and my lips are tired and to be totally honest these type of threads are annoying, what does it matter how much I make.

    /rant ✌
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,575Subscriber
    Winrates depends on a mountain of factors but 4-10 is about right. But I will hit some limits and examples I have seen from players I know

    1/2: 0 - 12bb/hr ---- this really depends on the stack sizes, your raise size, and the rake of the table. In general almost all players at this limit are absolutely abysmal. Some can even be bluffed. I put zero in here because someone can be playing really well and score zero if the stacks are too short in general and the rake too high Like Lucky Chances 1/1/2 tables in Colma CA. You need lots of money on the table to be profitable but usually it is full of shorties.

    2/5: 2 - 20bb/hr ---- Here the skill is better and you start running into competent regs and a handful of good ones. Competent means they are good enough to beat the fish but have such huge holes in their game an observant solid play can exploit them. To get to 20bb/hr you need 2/5 tables that get deep. Like Hard Rock's $200-$1000 2/5 game in Fort Lauderdale. It has lots of bad players. If you hit 10bb/100 at a game where people generally buy in for $300-$500 and many keep stacks up to $1000 you are doing good.

    5/10: 2 - 13bb/hr ==== much tougher, aggressive competition. Fish can be accidentally balanced, as Bart puts it, making them tough to play. Many regs are very aggressive.

    Just mine and some other player's I know experiences.
  • HappyluckboxHappyluckbox Posts: 27Member
    edited July 2017
    Fuzzypup wrote: »
    Winrates depends on a mountain of factors but 4-10 is about right. But I will hit some limits and examples I have seen from players I know

    1/2: 0 - 12bb/hr ---- this really depends on the stack sizes, your raise size, and the rake of the table. In general almost all players at this limit are absolutely abysmal. Some can even be bluffed. I put zero in here because someone can be playing really well and score zero if the stacks are too short in general and the rake too high Like Lucky Chances 1/1/2 tables in Colma CA. You need lots of money on the table to be profitable but usually it is full of shorties.

    2/5: 2 - 20bb/hr ---- Here the skill is better and you start running into competent regs and a handful of good ones. Competent means they are good enough to beat the fish but have such huge holes in their game an observant solid play can exploit them. To get to 20bb/hr you need 2/5 tables that get deep. Like Hard Rock's $200-$1000 2/5 game in Fort Lauderdale. It has lots of bad players. If you hit 10bb/100 at a game where people generally buy in for $300-$500 and many keep stacks up to $1000 you are doing good.

    5/10: 2 - 13bb/hr ==== much tougher, aggressive competition. Fish can be accidentally balanced, as Bart puts it, making them tough to play. Many regs are very aggressive.

    Just mine and some other player's I know experiences.


    These winrates seem a bit high. I dont know any players with winrates like 20/bb an hour at 2-5. Also 13bb/hour is a taf off the mark imo. Maybe 10 in my experience. Would your friends be willing to share graphs? I'd be really impressed if anybody can post a 1000+ hour sample crushing 2-5 for $100 an hour.

  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,575Subscriber
    The #s I posted are from players I know who have been playing those limits for years. It depends on a mountain of factors. If I play in Miami the 1/2 game I have a huge winrate because the players are THAT bad and the Cubans have mountains of money to shove in pots. One night a guy literally lost $3000 @ 1/2. Everyone had $600-$800 stacks. That night alone I made $1200.

    But if I play in the Oaks at Berkley CA my winrate sucks. Why? Because of the shorties that play there and other factors.
  • neverlearn2neverlearn2 Posts: 2,862Subscriber
    I'll post my losing online graph when I get home.
  • neverlearn2neverlearn2 Posts: 2,862Subscriber
    GSGmACD.png

    here it goes. started playin online again after playing casually here and there. this is ACR, used to play igniton/bovada and i think its harder here but maybe im just biased.

    in my defense, some of these buyins were me fucking around and also lost a good portion of hands from trying to figure out best way to move HHs from snowie to PT to new folder etc. I know i won some hands here but whatever.

  • FreeLunchFreeLunch Posts: 1,311Pro
    Its really important to differentiate between recorded win rates and actual edge. There is this false perception that if you have 3-4 years at win rate $x that you then know thats your win rate aka edge and it will keep going for ever. Take a look at this chart from this article. https://www.pokervip.com/strategy-articles/texas-hold-em-no-limit-beginner/poker-luck

    screenshot350.png

    As you can see -its very possible to have realized win rates that are way different from the ones predicted by your edge and that it can last over a huge number of hands. If you have never seen a chart like that - the edge or projected win rate is the black dotted line and the other lines are all mathematical projections of what people with that theoretical win rate might actually experience due to variance.

    workinghard has it right - the only thing that matters is how much the villains are willing to lose. You can be the best player in the world on a table of losers and you win rate will be only a factor of how much they are willing to lose per hour. The reality is that you are not the best player in the world, there is probably one other winner on your table and a couple of break even or close to break even players, and that all of you are splitting (in the long run) whatever the losers donate. And then there is rake. Example. 9 handed 2-5 game. You and one other are winning players. There are three close to break even players. - so 4 losers. The losers obviously win sometimes and lose sometimes but on the average lets assume they would all quit poker if they really lost more than $50 an hour in the long run - I think some number like that is close to reality, So there is $200 an hour to win. The rake takes away $150 an hour or more so that leaves $50 to be split between you and the other winner - or 5bb/hr.

    But you ask, what about those maniac games where people lose $1000 an hour. They just dont really last that long before enough winning players find out - but to be honest, that's part of the reason I move around a lot instead of playing in the same place all the time. If you can find those once in a while its a huge upside - but you have to accept a lot more variance, be properly rolled for much bigger games, and when the mistakes are mostly preflop you will be taking a much lower relative edge (that's hard to explain but the 2-5 game with a guy dumping $500 per hand is not a 2-5 game really - its more like a 25-50 game when it comes to bankroll requirements so you need to look at your edge not comparing it to a 2-5 game but to a 25-50 game and while you may make more money in that game your effective bb/hr is probably lower than it would be in a normal game)

    I generally recommend to my students to log all their sessions but rarely look at the data - ideally once a year at most. You are much more likely to use the data to lie to yourself than to reveal any useful truth - and none of that data will ever make you better at poker so you might as well not waste any mental energy on it - especially if there is tilting data. Save your mental energy for study and observation.
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,575Subscriber
    Funny. I have the opposite experience. I log my data and look at it to find out WTF is going on. Once I realize why I am losing I correct whatever flaw I am doing due to X or I realize it's just bad luck and move on. It makes me feel better and play better.
  • nopairnopair Posts: 350Subscriber
    Analyzing your own data is critical to anyone who wants to understand themselves better. For example, if there always is a dropoff in your results after ten hours of play, it is possible that is a coincidence but unlikely. It means something you should pay attention to. Same goes when people go from four sessions a week to six and see consistent dropoff.

    The most obvious place studying your records can help is if you are a mixed game player. If you consistently win in nine games but lose in a tenth, again it may be shorterm coincidence, but you sure better consider it is more likely a flaw in your play in that game and examine what you are doing.

    Likewise a good record keeper will know how he is doing during mid-day rock-infested games versus midnight spewfests. Just looking at your bottom line is extremely unhelpful if the real lesson is that you personally as a player are much more suited for one type of game over other types.
  • KelbyMarvinKelbyMarvin Posts: 235Subscriber
    edited July 2017
    About Tree Fiddy/100
  • maphacksmaphacks Posts: 2,009Subscriber
    Fuzzypup wrote: »
    Funny. I have the opposite experience. I log my data and look at it to find out WTF is going on. Once I realize why I am losing I correct whatever flaw I am doing due to X or I realize it's just bad luck and move on. It makes me feel better and play better.

    By looking at your data you find out about your leaks^^?

  • maphacksmaphacks Posts: 2,009Subscriber
    I think at least 50% of winning players and close to 100% of losing players are dishonest when it comes to winrates.

    It's really hard to find people with more than 10bb/h because they either move up or play online.
    Thanked by 1JKH
  • pray4blankpray4blank Posts: 141Subscriber
    So...I don't have winrate data for playing in juicy games with selection, but I have 7 years of prop data covering 2/2, 1/3, and 2/5, in mostly terrible games, with some additional (but not as trusted as my own data) information from coworkers over the years.

    ...With kind of anti-game selection, I've ran around 3-5bb/hr across stakes (around 4,000 hours), and most every nit prop has a small win in these games each year. So, from that, I'm guessing 10bb for an excellent player who is aggressively game selecting is quite possible. I think most people, however, would fail to do everything necessary to reach this sort of rate. I just never see anyone (even those I know are trying to grind profit); Get up when they're not concentrating, leave a bad game, change to a better seat, refuse to be patient even when they've just been dealt 30 fold-able hands in a row, etc.

    FreeLunch's post is to be listened to, though, and both Bart of David have made similar statements. You just can't gather enough data to know your edge. By the time you do, your play has changed, and the player pool has changed. I think the best you can ever really know as a poker player is: "Ya, I obviously have an edge on these people", and that takes only about 30 minutes of data.
  • 2thdoctor2thdoctor Posts: 66Subscriber
    Here's my lol graph for 139 hours - 100 at 1/2 400 cap and 40 hours at 2/5 1000 cap
    Thanked by 1KelbyMarvin
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,575Subscriber
    maphacks wrote: »
    Fuzzypup wrote: »
    Funny. I have the opposite experience. I log my data and look at it to find out WTF is going on. Once I realize why I am losing I correct whatever flaw I am doing due to X or I realize it's just bad luck and move on. It makes me feel better and play better.

    By looking at your data you find out about your leaks^^?

    Of course. But this is also mental reinforcement.

    So imagine you are playing online. You go on a 6 month losing streak. You are losing your mind. You can punch in data to see where things are going wrong. So yea it finds leaks based on a zillion factors but at the same time it could simply be variance. So let's say it is variance. Now your sanity is restored. At least that's how it works for me.

    Human beings are pattern recognition experts. Same applies to poker. If you keep bet TPGK, bet TPGK, get raised all in on the turn and call every time to see set 25% of the time you bet it affects you mentally. It rearranges your pattern recognition creating a M.U.B. reaction. It impacts everyone.

    For example I had a few live sessions where I kept getting raised on the turn over and over and over non-stop. These were fishy players. You need to fold. But the frequency was almost every hand. It throws off your perception. You can either think they are full of shit or think they always have it and create fear.

    Reading the data alleviates this in me. It mostly applies to online. On Ignition you can see the hand the next day. Live you can't but you can learn to play the hand better.

    It is one of the reasons why a monster bankroll for your limit is correct.
  • iamalliniamallin Posts: 1,173Subscriber, Professional
    Most winning pros at 5 10 will lie between 40 to 80 per hour over a large enough sample, at least 2000 hours.

    Assuming average difficulty of games, 1500 buyin.

    80 per hour winners are better at playing the infrequent big pots perfectly and making slightly better decisions in frequent small posts, compared to the 40 per hour winners, in my observation.
  • pokertimepokertime Posts: 2,194Subscriber
    Fuzzypup wrote: »
    maphacks wrote: »
    Fuzzypup wrote: »
    Funny. I have the opposite experience. I log my data and look at it to find out WTF is going on. Once I realize why I am losing I correct whatever flaw I am doing due to X or I realize it's just bad luck and move on. It makes me feel better and play better.

    By looking at your data you find out about your leaks^^?

    Of course. But this is also mental reinforcement.

    So imagine you are playing online. You go on a 6 month losing streak. You are losing your mind. You can punch in data to see where things are going wrong. So yea it finds leaks based on a zillion factors but at the same time it could simply be variance. So let's say it is variance. Now your sanity is restored. At least that's how it works for me.

    Human beings are pattern recognition experts. Same applies to poker. If you keep bet TPGK, bet TPGK, get raised all in on the turn and call every time to see set 25% of the time you bet it affects you mentally. It rearranges your pattern recognition creating a M.U.B. reaction. It impacts everyone.

    For example I had a few live sessions where I kept getting raised on the turn over and over and over non-stop. These were fishy players. You need to fold. But the frequency was almost every hand. It throws off your perception. You can either think they are full of shit or think they always have it and create fear.

    Reading the data alleviates this in me. It mostly applies to online. On Ignition you can see the hand the next day. Live you can't but you can learn to play the hand better.

    It is one of the reasons why a monster bankroll for your limit is correct.

    So are you keeping individual session notes like "I got raised on a lot of turns tonight, called and lost, players were betting absolute value of their hand so I should have folded." ?
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