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Surreal Advantage Podcast No. 69: Mayweather vs McGregor: Never Say Never

CLP_CraigCLP_Craig Posts: 787Administrator
He said it would never happen, so obviously it's happening. Daliman tells you what to bet and why on Mayweather/McGregor

Episode Posts at 11 AM PST.

http://www.crushlivepoker.com/podcasts/mayweather-vs-mcgregor-never-say-never

Comments

  • PhilippPhilipp Posts: 55Subscriber
    Totally agree with all you said ;)
  • stayinschoolstayinschool Posts: 2,969Subscriber
    didn't see pay-pre-view bet before, great spot. Definitely a ton of value
  • stayinschoolstayinschool Posts: 2,969Subscriber
    So floyd is -155 to win by KO, TKO or DQ. but, like you said, you can bet floyd to win in each round at +1600.

    If you just on each round isn't that the same bet, but at +133?

    Or does that not include floyd by DQ. A bit of a boxing amateur here so not very knowledgeable on the rules
  • pokertimepokertime Posts: 2,194Subscriber
    Fun podcast. I love how you caught yourself saying "never" again!
    Thanked by 1Daliman
  • neverlearn2neverlearn2 Posts: 2,862Subscriber
    edited June 2017
    i think mayweather decision still good value. liked the mayweather every round but i can see mcgregor winning some end rounds or early rounds from just being more aggressive. I agree with everything else u said though and im not even a boxing fan. feel like there is a lot of money to be made for floyd if he ever wants to get knocked out, people want to se him lose still. can you imagine the 3 fight circus behind that? holy shit man. but you got to think floyd has enough money to keep his pride good.
  • pokertimepokertime Posts: 2,194Subscriber
    Assuming he lasts Connor is going to have a least one round where he flips out and gets aggressive trying to knock out Floyd so he may win that round or a couple where Flod just plays defense and lest Connor wear himself out. At the same time Conner may easily open himself up early through lack of experience and Flod just pummels him. Floyd would have to make a catastrophic mistake and he hasn't done that yet.
  • neverlearn2neverlearn2 Posts: 2,862Subscriber
    So this comes down to if Floyd wants to embarrass Conor or make this like an exhibition?

    Are Peole really putting serious money on mcgeegor
  • stayinschoolstayinschool Posts: 2,969Subscriber
    If i had to bet on an outcome i'd say floyd btw TKO. I think there are gonna be 4-8 rounds of conor getting hit a ton and not getting close to floyd. I think his coaches will be smart enough to stop it at some point. Even if floyd doesn't have one punch knockout power, there is a point where it doesn't make sense for conor to just get hit 150 more times and never get close.
    Thanked by 1Sonny
  • pokertimepokertime Posts: 2,194Subscriber
    edited June 2017
    So this comes down to if Floyd wants to embarrass Conor or make this like an exhibition?

    Are Peole really putting serious money on mcgeegor

    I would think Connor isn't a bad long shot bet as Daliman said. Anything can happen. Dali seemed to basically be recommending "middling" the fight with the right lines on each side. But I don't know a lot about betting either.

    I suspect Floyd just sees it as easy money and will play his A game. He probably figure Connor will embarrass himself so Floyd just boxes like he always does and don't get tricked into a scrap. I expect Floyd to stay technical as always and Connor will make a mistake giving Floyd a chance to hurt him and take over. Or it will be two guys dancing in a circle for 36 min with like 8 punches a round lol.

    I would like Connor to get in a good shot and they actually fight it out a little.
  • PhilippPhilipp Posts: 55Subscriber
    Daliman I have a question for you. So I am getting -400 on a mayweather win (doesnt matter how he wins)
    This just must be such an massiv edge it is unreal! I mean what are the real odds. Probably like 1% chance mcgregor wins :D
    My question is how much of your roll would you personally be willing to bet here?
    (I know it depends on everyones preferences, other assets etc etc)
    But what is your take on it as a pro bettor?
  • PhilippPhilipp Posts: 55Subscriber
    I mean these numbers are soooo insane. If you use just 0,5 (50%) kelly it tells you to bet 47,5% of your bankroll! Full kelly says 95% of your bankroll!
    Mayweather at -400 just seems like the best bet we will ever get!!
    Or I am missing something???!
  • DalimanDaliman Posts: 149Pro
    edited August 2017
    Ok, you're figuring your edge wrong. Here's how I figure it out. I'm sure there are easier ways, but here's what I do.

    Let's say you are winning 99% of the time. Let's place 100 theoretical bets, and figure you're betting a $100 unit each time, meaning you will either risk $100 at + money or bet to win $100 at - money. In this case, we are making 100 $400 bets, risking $40,000. You win 99 bets for +$9900, you lose 1 bet for -$400, meaning you win $9500. Now, maybe this makes you think you have a 95% edge then, but remember, edge is profit divided by risk, so 9500/40000=.2375, so you have a 23.75% edge on the bet. It's hard to get enormous edges when you're laying a big #. I'd be quite happy risking 24% of my bankroll on this fight.

  • FreeLunchFreeLunch Posts: 1,311Pro
    Philipp wrote: »
    I mean these numbers are soooo insane. If you use just 0,5 (50%) kelly it tells you to bet 47,5% of your bankroll! Full kelly says 95% of your bankroll!
    Mayweather at -400 just seems like the best bet we will ever get!!
    Or I am missing something???!

    Using Kelly in sports betting is less than ideal. It works fine in things like blackjack when you can be sure your edge but when edge or probability of winning is subjective then the subjectivity is generally so large as to make Kelly a poor bankroll management tool (I dont claim to be any kind of sports betting expert so perhaps I am missing something here)

  • DalimanDaliman Posts: 149Pro
    FreeLunch wrote: »
    Philipp wrote: »
    I mean these numbers are soooo insane. If you use just 0,5 (50%) kelly it tells you to bet 47,5% of your bankroll! Full kelly says 95% of your bankroll!
    Mayweather at -400 just seems like the best bet we will ever get!!
    Or I am missing something???!

    Using Kelly in sports betting is less than ideal. It works fine in things like blackjack when you can be sure your edge but when edge or probability of winning is subjective then the subjectivity is generally so large as to make Kelly a poor bankroll management tool (I dont claim to be any kind of sports betting expert so perhaps I am missing something here)

    Less than ideal is probably the proper term. While you can estimate an edge, you can't fully quantify it. Kelly lends itself just fine to sports betting overall, however. If you know you are making 3-5% per bet per year betting sports, there is nothing wrong with betting those amounts as your Kelly imo.
  • FreeLunchFreeLunch Posts: 1,311Pro
    There was a lot of talk in the financial world after long term capital management failed about Kelly like strategies in investing - where you invest to max return based on the log of capital - aka bet bigger on what you think the big winners are. Consensus was that the risk of ruin was a lot higher in the real world and was not properly reflected in Kelly like investing. Seems to me that would also run true in sports, that is, is it a reasonable argument that just because you think you have a huge edge in a specific bet does not necessarily mean you want to put a Kelly calculated percentage of your roll at risk? Put another way, I would think Kelly would be fine for average situations but less useful in extreme "sure things"
  • DalimanDaliman Posts: 149Pro
    It is quite rare, indeed to have exact knowledge of edge in bets/investments. Few people do full Kelly though, opting for less risky amounts. Not sure about their utility in "sure things" though.
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