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$2/$5: Can We Find a Fold Here or Do we Have to Call Off?

$662 eff. UTG+1 opens to $20, recreational player calls in MP1, I 3-bet in BB to $80 with J J :s:, MP1 calls.

6 8 3 $187 I bet $120, MP1 calls
8 $427 I bet $200, MP1 shoves $462

Can we find a fold here?

Comments

  • alambic49alambic49 Posts: 87Subscriber
    What is the image of Vilain?
    Lots of 77,99,TT in his range.. I would call unless he is super nitty.
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,581Subscriber
    So you are getting $250 to win ~$1100 or ~4.4:1 to call. You need to be right 22% of the time.

    (8) combos of 8xs hands (A8s, T8s, 98s, 87s).... Any reads? This makes a big difference in the hand. Like maybe he is spazz shoving a FD on the turn trying to rep an 8x hand. Maybe he slowplayed AA, maybe he is spazz shoving TT.

    You put yourself in a bad spot by your flop bet. It's a 3b pot. Very unlikely anyone hit that board. You bet too large.

    If you bet let's say $80 now the pot is $347 and you have $502 left. That allows better leverage. As played you have $462 left with a pot of $427.
  • Rysher8Rysher8 Posts: 234Subscriber
    Pretty difficult situation. My initial reaction is that you're probably behind, but as played I can't find a fold. 1010 and 99 are definitely in his range, but so are QQ 66 and 33 and maybe even KK. Some rec players are willing to call anything reasonable pre with an pocket pair. I have a hard time seeing an 8, unless you've seen him call down very light preflop in the past.

    Being out of position makes this especially harrowing, because in position you could probably let the turn check through--then call or value bet the river depending on his action. As played I think the pot odds are way too good to fold, though I do expect you to be behind 60-70% of the time.
  • Letmewin1Letmewin1 Posts: 1,244Member
    He's not a rec.player he's a poker prodigy that understands GTO and ranges better than your average or top reg. pool and he knows that based on theory he has more 8x in his range than you do.
    I'd probably fold everything but the nut boat here.
  • AJoffAJoff Posts: 546Subscriber
    Maybe. I like folding JJ way better than I like folding AA
  • Letmewin1Letmewin1 Posts: 1,244Member
    AJoff wrote: »
    Maybe. I like folding JJ way better than I like folding AA

    It depends.
  • pokertimepokertime Posts: 2,194Subscriber
    Unfortunately this is A8 a lot. I think with the good odds and the limited combos of A8 it's a call. I might have checked flop for a little pot control just to see what's up but I don't hate a bet either. There are a couple draws/overs that will call to see a turn and you have the best hand a lot OTF. Unfortunately TP is also a hand that will call to see a turn. I may check turn even if I plan on calling most bets. I at least want to see how V acts and sizing.

    I say zero chance he flats KK PF and maybe only 1 combo QQ and he's raising that as well a fair amount. I would only give him a couple combos of weird 8 as he's really only calling PF with the higher SC. 99/TT I probably give all combos but he has 66 as well as at least 1 33. Bottom line we are beat a lot but we should be good at least 22% and that's the spot we got ourselves in. He should even have 1 or 2 NFD combos here.
  • AcidhaussAcidhauss Posts: 291Subscriber
    Pre, 3betting or flatting is fine. I prefer flatting but thats me.

    Flop is ok, I dont mind a smaller bet but fine.

    Turn I actually dont mind a check.

    Not only are 99,TT and FDs going to protect/bluff when it looks like you have AK, you also keep in his random airballs if he any.

    I think by checking, we induce more mistakes from worse hands trying to protect from overcards and flush draws.

    This is a line I take against recs I use quite frequently and have had a fecent amount of success with. Your can also add it in vs regs who call 3bets very wide as well for massive tilt value- nobody likes being xr on the turn and having to fold a decent draw!

    If it does go check check OTT we can also pot the river for massive value. I think youre going to get looked up here a ton by A high type hands after "underrepping" your hand.

    As played I'm not folding.
  • stayinschoolstayinschool Posts: 2,969Subscriber
    Size so you can shove turn yourself
  • IdlecaillouIdlecaillou Posts: 121Subscriber
    I like the 3 bet. I like flop bet. I'm checking the turn for pot control and evaluating the river and 95 percent calling a river bet. Against rec player that turn makes me nervous as well the pre call. Never know what these players have when they call 3b instantly not even thinking about it. I had a old man show up with AA against my 3b 1010 Insta over calling in the bb last week. Lol.
  • iamalliniamallin Posts: 1,173Subscriber, Professional
    Call.
    Thanked by 1fozbo
  • neverlearn2neverlearn2 Posts: 2,862Subscriber
    if we include A8 or 8x in his hands then we can include a ton of draws we beat that might take a similar line esepcially one that turned a backdoor draw.
  • misterbasicmisterbasic Posts: 62Subscriber
    edited March 2017
    Assuming that @Fuzzypup did the math correctly looks like it's probably best to call here. Even if we give the villain a fairly strong range, we have 26.4% equity, about 4% above our breakeven. If you add a couple of airball combos in there it's even more favorable.
  • JoannaJoanna Posts: 428Member
    Size so you can shove turn yourself

    Is it because when we're never folding it's always better to shove ourselves because there might be a small chance V folds better?

  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,581Subscriber
    Don't forget the spazz factor of 10%. There is always a spazz factor with a poor player.
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