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1/3 NL - River bet sizing?

HeyWayneHeyWayne Posts: 20Subscriber
edited January 2017 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Tuesday night at local card room. Hero and Villain are $450 effective. Hero had a losing image, had lost KK twice in the night going all in both times. Shown down once, mucked once. Luck has turned around and I've won some small pots with C bets and one hand with the 2nd nut flush where I raised PF with K :s: 10 :s:. Villain in the hand limp/calls way too much. Postflop he is very passive but has a tendency to fold a lot of rivers while facing action with (what I presume are) made hands.

MP raises to $8, folds to Villain who calls. Hero calls on the button with 9 10. SB folds, BB calls.

Flop: ($33) 6 8 Q :s:
Checks to hero who bets $25. BB folds, MP folds, Villain calls.

Turns ($83) J :s:
Checks to hero who bets $75. Villain calls.

River ($233) 6
Checks to hero who bets.....?


  • qbert80qbert80 Posts: 52Subscriber
    I'm going smaller on river here for a few reasons 1) Weird that V doesn't bet flop when preflop raiser checks. That leads me to discount AQ, KQ; 2) you say he makes lots of river laydowns ostensibly with made hands; 3) That's not the best river in terms of how he views his hand. He's pretty much never got a 6, and the hands you're going to value target don't really like it.

    His range on river is busted straight draws (7,5; 9,7; 10,8) that are never calling, weaker queens, and occasionally, at the top of his range is weirdly played 2 pair hands (QJ or J,8) that will call a big bet. Despite your 9 & 10 blockers, I think i'd target one pair Qs - Q,10 & Q9 that picked up str8 draws on turn. In reality, i'd prob bet stupid small like $95 to try to lock up a call from a Q and given the V's overfold tendency.
  • pokertimepokertime Posts: 2,194Subscriber
    I agree with a smaller bet but would probably make it ~$115. Hopefully he's a got a pair he can't let go. It's hard to believe he check called down with a big Q but people do weird stuff. Some will just call down KQ here scared of AQ. Unless he missed a draw he should be calling here a lot.
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