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jackpot considerations and implied odd math

CAUTION LONG BUT NEED TO SET UP THE EXPLANATION. SORRY

At my local casino the jackpot is Aces full of Tens beat by quads or better. Most common example is a big ace vs a pair of tens + with 3 aces on the board. The player with the ace's kicker must play. The person with the bad beat gets half the jackpot, the winner of the hand 1/4 and the rest is a table share.

My question and debate with other friends/players at this casino is the following:

1. As the player with the pair of tens plus, vs a villain that is firing away on a flop or turn when there are 2 aces out there and the pre flop action dictates the likelihood of jackpot scenario as described above........Can that player use the 1 out to the last ace almost like implied odds that she will get paid the jackpot money from the pot as well?

2. Since the person with the big ace's kicker must play, the board is obviously much better if it is something like AA2-7 roughly. So....from a math perspective if we think our opponent has an ace and his kicker plays and he is betting,
can we include our 2 outs to our boat and 1 out to an ace which gives us the jackpot, thus needing about 45:1 in total pot odds if we include the 50% of the jackpot? and just consider the 2 outs a free roll sort of?

Sorry for the long wind
Example
700 effective 3/5 game. 30k jackpot

V1 raises to 20, 1 caller,
Hero who is a very tight player in CO 3 bets to 70 with KK

V1 calls

(150) Flop AcAd3h

Villain bets 100 on the flop (now maybe this villain is a reg and is well aware of the jackpot and thinks hero will call because of jackpot considerations) or maybe he is just betting an ace, or he has A2 and his kicker won't play. Or he is just tilted. Who knows why he is betting, but he raised pre flop and called a 3 bet from OOP against a tight player.

Hero calls

(350) Turn 7d.
Villain bets 250.
Now Hero squarely puts villain on an ace. Maybe a kicker that does't play, but can't be sure, but since he raised pre and called a 3 bet we put him on A10 plus

Is it pos EV in giving yourself 45:1 in odds to hit that ace and lose the pot and probably your stack but win the 15K in jackpot.
250x45 is 11250. Plus you have 2 outs to a jack.

what if jack pot is 50K? etc.

Comments

  • cbtobe@gmail.com[email protected] Posts: 54Subscriber
    sorry. mean 2 outs to a king at the end
  • Bart HansonBart Hanson Posts: 6,127Administrator, LeadPro
    edited January 2017
    Its actually 43-1 that you need. You see 8 cards you have 1 in 44 chance of hitting an ace. That is of course if you know he has an ace that plays, like his hand was turned over. In that case 43x250=$10,750 needed to win in the jackpot.

    At Commerce the loser gets 60% so if the jackpot was $30k, then his share would be $18k. Also, like you said you have an additional 2 outs to a K. In this exact example, yeah I am calling. Plus you have the real time possibility that you still may have the best hand with KK and your opponent shuts down on the river. But if he shows me AQ, like turns it over, you should call for the jackpot, yes.
    Thanked by 1Jacklamb
  • cbtobe@gmail.com[email protected] Posts: 54Subscriber
    thanks Bart. I think you just won me my side bet!
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