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PLO equity of specific hands versus likely "strong" ranges on different flops

iamalliniamallin Posts: 1,173Subscriber, Professional
I am going to start a thread here to list down equities of different made hands and big draws on the flop versus likely ranges a reasonably competent opponent would want to raise and get it in.

I feel like there is too little literature about this kind of hand matchup.

I will use Pro Poker Tools to evaluate equity versus a range.

Middle set versus (Top Set and Big Draws)

We have bare middle set, no backup, no backdoors.

Flop

K Q :s: 8

board: Ks Qh 8d
Hand Equity Wins Ties
QQ23 39.47% 236,805 0
KK, JT9, AJT 60.53% 363,195 0



K :s: Q :s: 8

board: Ks Qs 8d
Hand Equity Wins Ties
QQ23 10.66% 63,943 0
88 As 2s, AsJsTx, JsTs9x, kk 89.34% 536,057 0



I will add more hand match ups in this thread.

Others are free to contribute.



Thanked by 2Powdurrrr CycleV
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Comments

  • iamalliniamallin Posts: 1,173Subscriber, Professional
    I did not expect this. Middle set shrinks in value like a deflated baloon if we try to get it in on a board with wraps and flush draws. Reason being bare wraps don't want to put all their money in on this flop and there are much fewer combinations of fd + wrap, so top set combos completely kill our equity.
  • iamalliniamallin Posts: 1,173Subscriber, Professional
    edited January 2017
    If we expect our opponent to only go with wraps that have a pair with them,

    K Q :s: 8

    board: Ks Qh 8d
    Hand Equity Wins Ties
    QQ23 25.06% 150,353 0
    KK, AJTK, AJTQ, AJT8, AJTT, AJJT, AAJT, jt98, jt9q, jt9k, jt99, jtt9, jjt9 74.94% 449,647 0
  • iamalliniamallin Posts: 1,173Subscriber, Professional
    If we have the nut wrap (with or without a pair)

    K Q :s: 8

    board: Ks Qh 8d
    Hand Equity Wins Ties
    AJT 38.68% 210,253 43,618
    KK, AJTK, AJTQ, AJT8, AJTT, AJJT, AAJT, jt98, jt9q, jt9k, jt99, jtt9, jjt9 61.32% 346,129 43,618


  • iamalliniamallin Posts: 1,173Subscriber, Professional
    Nut wrap with top pair (blocking top set wooohooo)

    K Q :s: 8

    board: Ks Qh 8d
    Hand Equity Wins Ties
    AJTK 55.10% 286,388 88,392
    KK, AJTK, AJTQ, AJT8, AJTT, AJJT, AAJT, jt98, jt9q, jt9k, jt99, jtt9, jjt9 44.90% 225,220 88,392
  • iamalliniamallin Posts: 1,173Subscriber, Professional
    Nut wrap with middle pair

    K Q :s: 8

    board: Ks Qh 8d
    Hand Equity Wins Ties
    AJTQ 45.83% 252,272 45,384
    KK, AJTK, AJTQ, AJT8, AJTT, AJJT, AAJT, jt98, jt9q, jt9k, jt99, jtt9, jjt9 54.17% 302,344 45,384

  • iamalliniamallin Posts: 1,173Subscriber, Professional
    Nut wrap with bottom pair

    K Q :s: 8

    board: Ks Qh 8d
    Hand Equity Wins Ties
    AJT8 40.92% 222,785 45,492
    KK, AJTK, AJTQ, AJT8, AJTT, AJJT, AAJT, jt98, jt9q, jt9k, jt99, jtt9, jjt9 59.08% 331,723 45,492


  • iamalliniamallin Posts: 1,173Subscriber, Professional
    Non nut wrap with top pair ( blocking top set wooohooo)

    K Q :s: 8

    board: Ks Qh 8d
    Hand Equity Wins Ties
    JT9K 49.07% 248,670 91,460
    KK, AJTK, AJTQ, AJT8, AJTT, AJJT, AAJT, jt98, jt9q, jt9k, jt99, jtt9, jjt9 50.93% 259,870 91,460




  • crunchycrunchy Posts: 25Subscriber
    iamallin wrote: »

    Flop

    K Q :s: 8

    board: Ks Qh 8d

    Dyslexic Nit: These two boards are not the same.
  • iamalliniamallin Posts: 1,173Subscriber, Professional
    nice catch. Will correct that for future posts.
  • squishmytomatosquishmytomato Posts: 352Subscriber, Professional
    this is a cool thread for someone like me who has no idea how to play plo
  • iamalliniamallin Posts: 1,173Subscriber, Professional


    Bare top 2 pair KQ23

    on

    K :s: Q 8

    board: Ks Qh 8d
    Hand Equity Wins Ties
    KQ23 32.03% 192,188 0
    KK, AJTK, AJTQ, AJT8, AJTT, AJJT, AAJT, jt98, jt9q, jt9k, jt99, jtt9, jjt9 67.97% 407,812 0

  • iamalliniamallin Posts: 1,173Subscriber, Professional
    2 pair with straight draw blocker

    KQAA on K :s: Q 8


    board: Ks Qh 8d
    Hand Equity Wins Ties
    KQAA 37.10% 221,586 2,035
    KK, AJTK, AJTQ, AJT8, AJTT, AJJT, AAJT, jt98, jt9q, jt9k, jt99, jtt9, jjt9 62.90% 376,379 2,035
  • iamalliniamallin Posts: 1,173Subscriber, Professional
    2 pair with open ended straight draw

    KQJT on K :s: Q 8

    board: Ks Qh 8d
    Hand Equity Wins Ties
    KQJT 46.12% 241,549 70,332
    KK, AJTK, AJTQ, AJT8, AJTT, AJJT, AAJT, jt98, jt9q, jt9k, jt99, jtt9, jjt9 53.88% 288,119 70,332
  • iamalliniamallin Posts: 1,173Subscriber, Professional
    For the flush draw board, I had misrepresented the fd + wrap combos

    Here is the correct solution

    board: Ks Qs 8d
    Hand Equity Wins Ties
    qq23 13.50% 80,994 0
    Ass JT, Jss T9, Tss J9, 9ss JT, KK 86.50% 519,006 0

  • High__RollaHigh__Rolla Posts: 798Subscriber
    iamallin wrote: »

    Bare top 2 pair KQ23

    on

    K :s: Q 8

    board: Ks Qh 8d
    Hand Equity Wins Ties
    KQ23 32.03% 192,188 0
    KK, AJTK, AJTQ, AJT8, AJTT, AJJT, AAJT, jt98, jt9q, jt9k, jt99, jtt9, jjt9 67.97% 407,812 0
    Thanks for posting these. Curious why you excluded QQ from your opponents range on the top two matchups? In my experience, most villains play KK and QQ generally the same here (obviously, these are exceptions).
  • DustyDusty Posts: 233Subscriber
    PLO Quick Pro has an inexpensive book with all of these equities plus some that is very valuable, it also includes some tips and explanations of the equities.
    Thanked by 1CycleV
  • iamalliniamallin Posts: 1,173Subscriber, Professional
    edited January 2017
    @high___Rolla
    Given how poorly qq perform, I assumed our opponent would be aware of this and thus not play for all the chips with bare qq. But may be I can include some qq combos that have backup or blockers (like kqqx or qqjt or qqaj)

    @dusty
    Thanks..I didn't know that. Will see if I can buy it. I just wanted to a create an online space where I can always log into and quickly revise these equities as part of my preparation for any game. But a book works just fine as well.
    Thanked by 1Dusty
  • firespitterfirespitter Posts: 243Subscriber
    One thing to keep in mind is the combinatorics of looking at various possible hands... For instance on KQ8 there will be a lot more KKxx hands than AJT hands possible. Why? Because using only 2 card we have two cards remaining... With many combinations possible. I had a similar revelation looking at a player's checkraising range on a A64 flop... There were plenty of wrap hands possible, but they were vastly outweighed by just the 66 combos.

    Now this assumes that all of those pair combos are in our opponents range... Which may or may not be realistic for a given situation. With KK you can give most if not all combos, but not so much when its 66. Im not sure how to weight combos more accurately within a range to come out with equity against the total range.
  • iamalliniamallin Posts: 1,173Subscriber, Professional
    I think you can use % weighting in pro poker tools

    So if you think your opponent is reasonably tight preflop, and it's a raised pot you can give him top 15% of 66xx hands.

    You can represent this as 66:15% in ppt when calculating equity.

    For a limped pot you might want to raise this up to 25%.

  • High__RollaHigh__Rolla Posts: 798Subscriber
    One thing to keep in mind is the combinatorics of looking at various possible hands... For instance on KQ8 there will be a lot more KKxx hands than AJT hands possible. Why? Because using only 2 card we have two cards remaining... With many combinations possible. I had a similar revelation looking at a player's checkraising range on a A64 flop... There were plenty of wrap hands possible, but they were vastly outweighed by just the 66 combos.

    Now this assumes that all of those pair combos are in our opponents range... Which may or may not be realistic for a given situation. With KK you can give most if not all combos, but not so much when its 66. Im not sure how to weight combos more accurately within a range to come out with equity against the total range.

    The Count function on propokertools is great for counting combos especially when you combine it with an assumption on what percentage of hands an opponent plays preflop. So, on that flop if you think an opponent only plays top 25% hand, you can have it count combos of 25%:875. If you put in each hand in a range you will find out like you said that some hands have many more combos.
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