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AJs - Trips vs Turnraise

Villain unknown, white guy about 40 years old. We both have about 280 €. The last hour I didn´t see much of him, seems to be relativly tight.
I´m in the BB wit A J . 4 limpers, SB checks and I make it 14. V in MP calls and a pretty loose guy on the BU also calls.

Flop: J J :s: 6 Pot is 48 and I bet 24. V calls and the loose guy folds.
Turn: 7 I bet 45. V thinks a few seconds an makes it 115.

What´s your play here ?
I think a flushdraw would probably raise the flop most of the time. I don´t know how many J he can have here. AJ+KJ he will probably openraise preflop, also QJs, maybe he has QJo,,JT,,J9s....or he has 66, 77
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Comments

  • TaintBDTaintBD Posts: 244Subscriber
    His Turn 3bet is so small as to almost preclude a semibluff. It looks and feels like he hit 66/77.
    Since lowstakes players make so many weird plays and betsizing is rarely purposeful, I would call here getting 3:1 and play 5th street chicken and evaluate River play
  • pokertimepokertime Posts: 2,194Subscriber
    I think I just ship it here OOP OTT and hope he has a J. You going to be getting over 4:1 OTR and he shoves so folding is basically nil. A check check would be a disaster. If he's calling your shove lead OTR he's calling now so just go for it. If he has worse you get max, if he was bluffing he was check/folding river once you call turn, if he has better it's a cooler.
  • JamesSuhJamesSuh Posts: 320Subscriber
    I'd probably just go for it and ship it in he most likely had a jack.
    Thanked by 1squishmytomato
  • AcidhaussAcidhauss Posts: 291Subscriber
    I think your raise size is too small here with AJs OOP - I would go £20 (trying not to be results-orientated as obviously the hand doesnt end there ;) 0

    I think your bet size on the flop is on the right end of the spectrum but I would go slightly larger at 30-35. We want to target 6x, Jx (which may raise vs a smaller size putting us on AA), and all the pps and flush draws. More importantly there's no A or K on the flop, as people love to put tight players on AK/AQ. We also need to start building a pot.

    The pot size OTF = 48. If we're all-in by the river vs 1 guy, the pot will be about 600. Therefore the pot needs to grow each street by a factor of (600/50)^(1/3) = 2.289. This is equivalent to betting roughly 2/3 of the pot each street. By doing the pot geometry calculations if we half pot, half pot flop and turn the river jam is all rather messy.

    I'm ripping the turn all day, and don't even think its close. Nitty-loose-bingo players like this will limp in with all kinds like KJo, QJo, JTo etc. There are so many offsuit combinations of these hands I'm never folding here.



  • GrindThroughItGrindThroughIt Posts: 28Subscriber, Professional
    This raise size feels like value to me--I agree with OP's assessment that villain's more likely to raise a FD on the flop than the turn. And OP's description that he "didn't see much of him...rather tight" makes me think that villain isnt super active, isn't bluff- or semi-bluff raising much, prolly playing pretty ABC TAG. So we have to decide, is it value for his trips, or value for his boat?
    Described villain, in my experience, is more likely to raise just trips on this turn as opposed to a boat; a boat is still "safe" from the flushing river, where his trips are in danger of getting "sucked out" (quotation marks refer to average low-limit villains' thought processes). Sure there are six combos of 66/77 boats, but the QJ/JT/J9/J8s combos are way live too. I'd go into the tank for a bit (so that villain thinks we're tanking with an overpair) kind of shrug a little, and click it back, all-in.
  • FoldingIsBoringFoldingIsBoring Posts: 59Subscriber
    Ok so I´m happy with my decision...like the most of you would do, I pushed all in

    Results:
    River 6
    Villan shows 66 :frown:
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