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Math in a draw in real time..

Bart HansonBart Hanson Posts: 6,115Administrator, LeadPro
15 minutes ago at Commerce $5-10.

Let's do a real time math problem. I'll give my exact thoughts afterwards. V1 is a recreational player. He's not terrible but definitely losing. He tends not to play draws aggressively or slowplay especially in multiway pots.

Hero ($1500) has so/so image stuck maybe $500. Folded to me and I raise to $35 in HJ w 7 8 Button, sb and V1 ($1425) all call.

$140 FLOP: Q 5 7

Checked to Hero who bets $90. V2 ($1000) calls on button. Sb folds and V1 calls.

$410 TURN: K

V1 checks Hero bets 300. Button takes a while and folds. BB now cuts out chips and raises to $750.

How am I doing my math here vs a probable range? Is this a call?
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Comments

  • workinghardworkinghard Posts: 1,573Subscriber
    edited December 2016
    V1 checks Hero bets 300. Button takes a while and folds. BB now cuts out chips and raises to $750.

    Just checking, BB and V1 are the same person, right?
    If he doesn't play draws aggressively or slowplay big hands multiway, then he has a lot of K x or KQ (though I expect a larger raise from KQ). Maybe A Kx. I feel like if he had a made hand without a draw, he's either calling or raising larger if not just betting out. Against that kind of a range, you have a lot of reverse implied odds. Probably a fold if my range is correct.
  • Bart HansonBart Hanson Posts: 6,115Administrator, LeadPro
    V1 checks Hero bets 300. Button takes a while and folds. BB now cuts out chips and raises to $750.

    Just checking, BB and V1 are the same person, right?
    If he doesn't play draws aggressively or slowplay big hands multiway, then he has a lot of K x or KQ (though I expect a larger raise from KQ). Maybe A Kx. I feel like if he had a made hand without a draw, he's either calling or raising larger if not just betting out. Against that kind of a range, you have a lot of reverse implied odds. Probably a fold if my range is correct.

    Do we think most typical live players suddenly raise K J in this spot? What is the purpose of that raise?

    Also if he isn't 3 betting preflop w AK is he overcallig the FLOP bet? And if he suddenly does is he check raising the turn to 750 after preflop bets into FLOP and turn into 2 players?
  • workinghardworkinghard Posts: 1,573Subscriber
    Do we think most typical live players suddenly raise K♣ J♣ in this spot? What is the purpose of that raise?
    I wouldn't be surprised by that raise. I'm not sure what defines a "typical" live player since they come in various types. Your guy seems to play pretty straightforward from what you said about him/her.
    Also if he isn't 3 betting preflop w AK is he overcallig the FLOP bet
    speculative but I think he might with some frequency with the A
    is he check raising the turn to 750 after preflop bets into FLOP and turn into 2 players?
    hard to say. it's a move I've seen done. not sure if your villain would do it.

    Sounds like you're trying to put him on a very narrow range. do you think he could be making this play with a combo draw like A T or J T ?

    What's tricky for me with this hand is that other than a 7 on the river, and maybe an 8, I just don't know what a safe card for your is. If a club comes on the river and her shoves, are you calling?
  • Bart HansonBart Hanson Posts: 6,115Administrator, LeadPro
    edited December 2016


    We'll let some others respond before I give my results but yes I certainly was putting him on a narrow range and I think that if he did check raise a combo draw on the turn it would more likely be an all in bet.

    There is one specific club I would fold to yes, if I called. Then there is another non club card that improves my hand that I would fold and another non club card that improves my hand if I called.
  • workinghardworkinghard Posts: 1,573Subscriber
    If you know exactly what he has, and I think I know what you think he had, and you believe he will always pay you off if you improve on the river which I think is true and you will loose no more money if you don't improve, then you can call.
  • Bart HansonBart Hanson Posts: 6,115Administrator, LeadPro
    If you know exactly what he has, and I think I know what you think he had, and you believe he will always pay you off if you improve on the river which I think is true and you will loose no more money if you don't improve, then you can call.

    Right. And I'd like people to get into my process of what I think he had, why it's unlikely he doesn't have other hands and the outs math given the pot odds and implied odds.
  • daynnightdaynnight Posts: 200Subscriber
    edited December 2016
    I would do 1-4 on a call roughly 23-25% equity needed. If we just have our flush draw outs we have direct odds not counting pot odds. Since he doesnt play flush draws agressively our flush draw are probably clean outs. Assuming he always calls a shove if we call and bink this is a call. I range him as 2p+. KQ,55,77 most likely. VS that range we have ~21% equity but if we take into account implied odds this is a call.

    EDIT: I just read through the responses and see people advocating him having Kxcc or TJcc. In my experience in live poker that is extremely rare for passive rec players to raise this turn if they had a hand like this. I think his raise is exclusively KQ,55,77 who feels super strong and doesnt want to scare you away from the pot. I dont think our "8" outs are live and our "7" outs might be live though.
  • squishmytomatosquishmytomato Posts: 352Subscriber, Professional
    looks a lot like kq.

    would raise sets on flop on this drawy of a board, and also 3bet qq pre.

    10 outs (8 flush outs minus k of clubs, and 2 sevens). need 4:1, getting about 3.2:1 right now in direct odds. just gotta get a small amount on river to make this profitable if u hit.
    Thanked by 2JKH HareRee
  • Bart HansonBart Hanson Posts: 6,115Administrator, LeadPro
    edited December 2016
    looks a lot like kq.

    would raise sets on flop on this drawy of a board, and also 3bet qq pre.

    10 outs (8 flush outs minus k of clubs, and 2 sevens). need 4:1, getting about 3.2:1 right now in direct odds. just gotta get a small amount on river to make this profitable if u hit.

    You can do it dirty Squishy or you can do it precise if you put him on a single hand..

    Rules of 45 anyone? (Or in this case 44)
  • maphacksmaphacks Posts: 2,009Subscriber
    edited December 2016
    I would say he almost always has KQ here(maybe K7s,K5s , depending how lose he is but that's only three combos). we can call for sure, 450 to win ~1460. we most likely have 10-11 outs, so about 22% vs his range(KQ). I guess we have about 22% here and some additional implied odds. call

    *not the strongest part of my game so I hope the math is correct
  • maphacksmaphacks Posts: 2,009Subscriber
    Bart wrote: »

    We'll let some others respond before I give my results but yes I certainly was putting him on a narrow range and I think that if he did check raise a combo draw on the turn it would more likely be an all in bet.

    There is one specific club I would fold to yes, if I called. Then there is another non club card that improves my hand that I would fold and another non club card that improves my hand if I called.
    fold K , fold 8× , call 7 :s: / 7 , riddle solved :D
    Thanked by 1JKH
  • daynnightdaynnight Posts: 200Subscriber
    we need to call $450 to win $1450. That is 1:3.2 . Therefore to breakeven on a call we need 23% equity (1/(3.2+1)). If we take into consideration the $550 behind IF we hit the river then we need ~18% equity.

    I am confused as why you said the "So the equation is 1/(4.4-1)"
  • CycleVCycleV Posts: 1,196Subscriber
    I can't imagine V having less than top 2, probably a set. Fold on Kc, get paid on all the other clubs. 8 outs. Given Bart's read, this guy has a draw almost never. The other Q is whether he will pay off or not if we hit.

    I gotta run but will do math on me own later, see if I come up with the answer.
  • BlackBoxEquityBlackBoxEquity Posts: 165Subscriber
    edited December 2016
    Assuming he has KQ, we have 8 flush outs.
    8/44 = 1/5.5 = 4.5:1
    We need to make 4.5 x 450 total = 2025
    There is already 1450 in the pot, so need an additional 575 to make the call neutral EV.
    V1 only has 550 left, so don't have the correct odds to call --> Fold

    EDIT: We have 10 outs (2 7s give us trips)
    10/44 = 1/4.4 = 3.4:1
    Need to make 1530 total; 80 additional --> Easy Call
    Thanked by 2Thehammah 4barrell
  • maphacksmaphacks Posts: 2,009Subscriber
    edited December 2016
    you post here as well so does it mean it's not automatic for you?

    and if it weren't, why shouldn't one attempt poker. it's like saying "oh you are bad at maths, so better don't try to get better"
  • Rocketman74Rocketman74 Posts: 451Subscriber
    *GRUNCH*

    quick dirty math...

    - getting ~3-to-1 to call

    - given villain's description top two seems most likely so we have 10 outs most of the time

    - need ~3.5-to-1 in immediate odds to call and there's an extra $500 behind we often get

    - K and 8's are no good

    not sure I bet the turn but that's not the point of this thread
    Thanked by 14barrell
  • PBJTIMEPBJTIME Posts: 345Subscriber
    Pot is 1460 and it's 450 more to call. Villain's most likely holding looks like KQ.

    Board is;

    Q 5 7 K

    Our hand is 7 8

    We win with any except K and any 7. We have 10 outs. Rule of 45 remaining cards says we need to be good 1 in 3.5 times or 22%. 3.5 times our call of 450 (I do this math backwards) is 1575. The pot is 1460. We will definitely be able to make more than $115 on the river.

    Call all day.
    Thanked by 1Bart Hanson
  • iamalliniamallin Posts: 1,173Subscriber, Professional
    I check flop. If not I check Turn. If not I call turn raise.
  • Bart HansonBart Hanson Posts: 6,115Administrator, LeadPro
    iamallin wrote: »
    I check flop. If not I check Turn. If not I call turn raise.


    Not sure why I would check either street. FLOP we have a boatload of equity vs any hand and don't allow free over cards to a 7. K is a great double barrel card to get guys off of a queen..
    Thanked by 1Thehammah
  • ClockClock Posts: 1,133Subscriber
    If you can put him squarely on KQ - it's call (we have 10 outs - need 3.4 :1), but can you completely eliminate K J here or sometimes slow played flopped set?

    Is this sizing consistent with KQ in your opinion given the player(s)?
    It seems to me kinda smallish to me. I would expect him to just shove turn or make it like 1000 with KQ to end the hand right there...

    The fact that we're IP def helps. If non K club comes on river and he checks - I think we can safely shove and expect to get called..so it's pretty close.

    If club comes and he shoves - it's a puke fold...I guess???
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