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Crush Live Poker Video No. 271: More Turn Play Decisions

CLP_CraigCLP_Craig Posts: 790Administrator
This week, Tuck finishes what Bart started as he looks at decisions on the turn in a deep stacked 1-3 game

Episode Posts 11 AM PST

http://www.crushlivepoker.com/videos/more-turn-play-decisions
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Comments

  • DeorumDeorum Posts: 52Subscriber
    Hi David,

    I enjoyed the video. Here are some thoughts: In the fourth hand with Lon and Swiftly, QJ vs. T5 on the Q55 :r: flop, I don't think Bo limped with J8o UTG. I think he straddled. When the action folds around to Lon, you can see his placing a $5 chip on top of his $1 small blind before sliding them both into the pot. Swiftly in the BB then throws in a $1 chip and tosses his $5 chip used to post the BB into the pot. It then looks like Bo makes some sort of physical action with his arm (you can't see his hand but his arm moves) which is probably a check. So I think this is a straddled pot where it was folded around to the blinds who both called. This also means Lon's flop bet was $16 into $13 after the drop.

    As for the play of the hand, you liked Lon's flop lead, but I'm not crazy about it. Can you get value from a worse Q? Sure. But these guys can have any 5 (after all, we do see Swiftly complete with T5o) and potentially a few Qs that beat you. Can you get value from worse than a Q? Probably not. In fact, in Lon's spot I bluff this flop a lot since I don't expect to get called very often. And I'm definitely bluffing in either of the other two players' spots if it's checked to me. So I think that when you bet and get called on this flop you actually fare to have the worse hand more often than not considering there are an equal number of Qs and 5s left, and actually more combos of 5s than Qs that you beat. You also don't get floated or bluff raised very often at this level. For those reasons, I much prefer to let a card roll off to try to get a little value from somebody who makes a worse pair on the turn. There is something to be said for equity protection, but the pot is so small that there isn't much to protect, and I think the value you can get from having someone catch a pair of 9s or pick up a draw on the turn outweighs the equity you're giving up.

    As for the turn play, I'm largely in agreement with you on everything (though, if you like Lon's flop bet then his turn call isn't as bad since one of the reasons to like it would be that you expect to get floated some - this, in turn, would suggest that perhaps Lon ought to check the turn, but that's a whole other can of worms; I will sometimes take Swiftly's line with air against the right opponents, but almost nobody else around here would). I think the interesting question here is what is the minimum hand with which we should call the turn if we are in Lon's spot. Do we call with any 5 due to card removal? This implies we either think Swiftly has a float/bluff raise percentage significantly above 0, which is probably not the case, or that he is raising a Q, which is also probably not the case. I think if we are in Lon's spot with a 5 and get raised here we have found the fourth 5 a lot. So how strong of a 5 do we need to continue? And at what point does a 5 become a 3 bet? I'm not sure, and quite frankly I'm too lazy to do the combinatorics math at the moment. But my instinct would be to fold 85 and to 3 bet K5. I'd like to hear your thoughts on this.

    As a final note, at the end of the last hand when considering whether or not Valerie should turn her J9 into a bluff you say, "Maybe J9 is slightly too good a hand to turn into a bluff, although I just don't know what your opponent has here that you could possibly beat... you lose to QJ, you lose to KJ, you lose to pretty much every jack... you're literally just trying to bluff out AJ... so I'm probably not going to turn my hand into a bluff." Given how you were speaking, it sounded as if you had lost your train of thought a bit and had things backward, because I know you know this, but the hands you can't beat are the hands you're trying to bluff out! KJ, QJ, JT, a slowly played small turned flush, a set of 5s that got scared on the turn... these are all hands that beat you. The question, of course, is will these hands fold to a bet. I think a lot of them would, and would strongly consider turning J9 into a bluff here (and would probably pull the trigger a lot).
    Thanked by 1DavidTuchman
  • DavidTuchmanDavidTuchman Posts: 791Pro
    Man...That's a mouthful :)
  • DavidTuchmanDavidTuchman Posts: 791Pro
    Hey @Deorum, I'll look at those two hands again this week and we can have a good conversation about it.

    Thanks for the comment!

    Tuck
  • clphucclphuc Posts: 2Subscriber
    David:

    I have a question from the video. A couple of times you said something like: "only seldom should we bet to protect our hand" but then added something to the effect that "I like to bet to make my opponent pay to realize their equity". To me, those sound like opposite sides of the same coin. What am I missing? How is making an opponent pay to realize their equity different than protecting our equity?
  • DavidTuchmanDavidTuchman Posts: 791Pro
    clphuc wrote: »
    David:

    I have a question from the video. A couple of times you said something like: "only seldom should we bet to protect our hand" but then added something to the effect that "I like to bet to make my opponent pay to realize their equity". To me, those sound like opposite sides of the same coin. What am I missing? How is making an opponent pay to realize their equity different than protecting our equity?

    Good question...And I think I'll answer it fully on this week's podcast.

    The short of it is a bit confusing, but here goes. We do a lot of things in poker where you get added benefits from it, but that's not the actual goal.

    for example, we don't bet to get information, but our opponent's reaction to our bet wil often give us some information.

    In this case, I'm not a fan of betting to "protect" my hand, but if I don't think my opponent is going to bluff and I don't think checking will allow me to get value on a later street, there's little reason for me to allow my opponent to realize his equity for free. I might be talking out of both sides of my mouth in this particular situation, but there are a lot of times where I'll want to check (letting my opponent realize his equity) because my opponent likes to bluff or my opponent can be easily fooled by checking one street.

    Anyway, this is a really good question. I'm going to go into it in more depth on this week's podcast (Nov. 30th)

    Thanks for the comment
  • clphucclphuc Posts: 2Subscriber
    Thank you - I look forward to listening to your podcast.
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